As Pennsylvania Republicans head toward the 2026 governor’s race, an uncomfortable reality is becoming impossible to ignore: The energy that the grassroots once had has vanished. Party insiders believed that their solution to 2022 was simple — clear the field early, avoid another populist uprising, consolidate donors behind State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, and present a controlled, establishment-approved candidate to challenge Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The theory sounded good inside Harrisburg conference rooms. But politics is not won in conference rooms. It is won in fire halls, church basements, VFW halls, county fairs, packed rallies, and on front porches where volunteers knock on doors because they genuinely believe they are fighting for something bigger than themselves.

Despite establishment backing and a cleared Republican field, the warning signs are impossible to ignore. Shapiro has raised $37 million while Garrity lags behind at $1.4 million. Political analysts are questioning whether this race is even competitive.

This is not simply a fundraising problem. It is an enthusiasm problem. Volunteers sacrifice evenings and weekends when they feel emotionally connected to a movement. Voters engage when their voice matters and not something prearranged by party insiders.

That is precisely why the comparison to 2022 is so striking. In 2022, Douglas Mastriano entered the most crowded gubernatorial primary in Pennsylvania history. Nine Republicans competed for donors, endorsements, media attention, consultants and political oxygen.

Millions of dollars flooded into establishment-backed campaigns. Lou Barletta benefited from millions in support. Bill McSwain reportedly had roughly $16 million aligned behind his effort. Dave White poured approximately $4 million of his own fortune into the race.

Conventional wisdom said Mastriano should have been buried under the weight of establishment money and institutional opposition. Instead, he emerged from a nine-way primary with nearly half the vote — an extraordinary and almost unheard-of achievement in Pennsylvania politics.

And the movement behind him was unlike anything Republicans in Pennsylvania had witnessed. Volunteers collected nearly 30,000 petition signatures to place Mastriano on the ballot, a record in Republican history. Supporters knocked on half a million doors — unpaid volunteers fueled by conviction rather than consultants. Mastriano’s merchandise sales were the second highest in the nation among Republican campaigns, trailing only President Donald Trump. That kind of grassroots passion cannot be manufactured artificially.

It either exists or it does not. And in 2022, it existed everywhere.

Events that were planned as meet-and-greets turned into massive rallies. In Chester County, October 2022, organizers expected a few hundred attendees. Instead, over 1,000 supporters flooded the venue after Mastriano arrived with his wife, Rebbie. The event was standing-room-only. The night before election day, the campaign held an event in Montgomery County near Shapiro’s home. Organizers stopped counting after more than 1,000 people entered. Near Chambersburg, another Mastriano rally drew approximately 1,400 supporters.

These were Pennsylvanians who felt emotionally invested in the campaign and believed they were part of a movement fighting for the future of the state.

Meanwhile, today’s Republican gubernatorial environment feels almost sterile by comparison.

The packed rallies are gone.

The volunteer army is gone.

The electricity is gone.

And grassroots Republicans understand exactly why. The state party decided to remove the voters from the process. Rather than allowing a competitive primary, insiders consolidated power around a hand-picked candidate before Republican voters truly had a voice.

That may have produced temporary institutional unity. But it also suffocated the grassroots energy that powers Republican victories in Pennsylvania. Because voters want ownership. They want authenticity. They want conviction. They want candidates willing to challenge the political establishment instead of being manufactured by it!

The irony is impossible to miss. In trying to prevent another Mastriano movement, the Republican establishment may have eliminated the very enthusiasm Republicans need to defeat Josh Shapiro.

And no amount of consultant messaging or carefully managed endorsements can replace what has been lost.

Ernie Springer is a Lancaster County resident who has worked in the financial industry for 40 years. Having worked on campaigns since 2022, most recently in January 2026, he started and led a write-in campaign to elect State Sen. Doug Mastriano for governor, drawing support from Mastriano’s 2022 grassroots base of volunteers.